| Day | Date | High/Low | Forecast |
| Tue | 5th | 71/54 | Variable high clouds but generally sunny remainder of day. Variable evening high clouds; Possibly breezy late evening. |
| Wed | 6th | 75/53 | Mostly sunny day with some morning high clouds. Clear evening. Possibly breezy at times through the evening. |
| Thu | 7th | 75/52 | Sunny day; Possibly breezy at times early. Clear evening. |
| Fri | 8th | 75/52 | Sunny day. Clear evening. |
| Sat | 9th | 73/51 | Sunny day. Chance of evening low clouds. |
Synopsis
Sorry, I’ve been busy of late. So, not much time to peruse the weather maps…
A large, upper level trough was developing in the Great Basin states. A “closed” low pressure is expected to form somewhere in eastern Arizona by late tomorrow afternoon. The resulting wind flow pattern around this trough should promote moderate to strong off-shore flow (starting higher elevations as early as tonight). As with many off-shore flow events, predicting how widespread significant winds get can be challenging. The usual, Santa Ana wind prone areas are almost certain to get a period of windy weather (peak mountain gusts potentially exceeding 90 mph though nothing widespread in areal extent nor persistence). Some breezy weather is probable for a time on the Westside tomorrow, but how windy it actually gets remains to be seen. UCLA recorded a peak gust to 35 mph a couple days ago, but the predicted, deep layered winds this time are expected to be more northeasterly than northwesterly (former tends to promote less windy conditions than latter case…most occasions).
Significant wind (gusts 25mph or higher) should taper off most areas by late tomorrow (peak windy period probably early tomorrow). Off-shore flow is still likely on Thursday, but relevant winds should be more restricted to Santa Ana wind prone areas (mostly higher elevations). By Friday, a marginal, on-shore flow may return. Weak on-shore flow is predicted for this weekend (probable return of a marine layer late Saturday or Sunday and cooling back toward seasonable temperatures).
The numerical models have been under predicting temperatures recently when stronger off-shore flows happened. The models may be under predicting again (favors only low 70s for coastal plain). Part of the problem stems from how much polar air actually settles into the high desert region of southern California. The models may be over predicting the polar air depth. So, I’ve leaned today’s forecast toward a little more warming than the models. It’s possible I’m still too low with the numbers (potential to near 80 degrees at UCLA sometime this week). In any case, a cooling trend should develop late this week when the off-shore flow wanes.
Some of the longer range models show a minor threat of showers reaching the Southland around Veteran’s Day. Most models predict an average, “inside slider” type trough (more wind storm than rain storm). The chances of showers would be highest around the mountains and down toward San Diego County (nothing heavy even with the wet scenarios). Other than that, next week should be a continuance of occasional, off-shore flow wind events (weak). Temperatures should be mostly above normal though probably not greatly above normal levels…UCLA normally falling to low 70s by mid-month).
Next issued forecast/synopsis may be on Friday, 8 November.