| Day | Date | High/Low | Forecast |
| Fri | 14th | 60/47 | Partly cloudy remainder of morning; Mostly sunny afternoon. Breezy at times. Mostly clear evening and possibly breezy at times. |
| Sat | 15th | 65/50 | Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Some high clouds in the evening. |
| Sun | 16th | 69/51 | Mostly sunny day with scattered high clouds. Scattered high clouds in the evening. |
| Mon | 17th | 66/50 | Mostly sunny day with scattered high clouds. Variable evening high clouds. |
| Tue | 18th | 69/52 | Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Some evening high clouds possible. |
Synopsis
The most recently departed storm, for the most part, lived up to its forecast reputation (as a major storm). Some residual, light showers persist this afternoon in some mountain locales (southern San Joaquin Valley too). It also remains breezy in many areas, but all this is far tamer than what it was like yesterday afternoon through the evening. The one surprise (for me) was the confirmed report (by NWS personnel) of a brief-lived, weak tornado in Oxnard (possibly gustnado or landspout). I didn’t hear of a EF rating scale for the storm, but it was probably EF0 (lowest on storm scale with 65-85 mph winds, based on media coverage of damage). Rainfall (going back to include Wednesday totals) didn’t reach two inches in some areas away from the mountains, but at least, over an inch fell (good soaking). Many foothill locales received three to five inches while some higher mountains recorded five to eight inches. The period of “warm” temperatures lasted longer than I expected during the storm. So, snow down to 6000 feet appeared to amount to only a couple inches (6 -12 inches reported, so far, above 7000 feet). The UCLA auto-gauge, storm total stood at 3.81 inches, but as I’ve indicated in the past, that gauge tends to over report rainfall. It’s probably closer to 3.05 inches (“official” measurement planned for Saturday).
High pressure aloft will build into the state tomorrow. It’ll get displaced by a Pacific, low pressure trough in northern California after tomorrow, but high pressure should hold together through Sunday in the Southland (may permit an increase in high clouds though). The predicted, development of weak, off-shore flow should promote modest warming (west of the mountains) through Sunday (slightly warmer than normal away from the coast on Sunday). The off-shore flow should weaken on Presidents’ Day and allow for some cooling that day. An “inside slider” type trough will pass nearby Monday night or early Tuesday. Some computer model forecasts show a brief opportunity for isolated, mountain showers on north facing slopes (Tehachapi Mountains), and some marine layer clouds may return south of L.A. County. However, after its passage, renewed, weak off-shore flow should ensue starting on Tuesday.
The off-shore flow should continue through mid-week before another, “inside slider” trough passes by on Thursday (weak on-shore flow for a time and some chance for isolated, mountain showers). This latter, “inside slider” might be strong enough for breezy weather in the interior, and marine layer clouds may turn out more extensive than what’s anticipated early next week. Still, the weather for the end of next week and the subsequent weekend should be dominated by weak off-shore flow (sunny and warmer than normal). There is some potential for 80 degree weather over the subsequent weekend (high end scenario…temperatures into the 70s may be more common). While it’s far from certain, there are some model solutions showing a modest, cold storm reaching the Southland at the end of the month or beginning of March.
Next issued forecast/synopsis may be on Tuesday, 18 February.