| Day | Date | High/Low | Forecast |
| Thu | 2nd | 67/56 | Variable clouds but mostly sunny day. Some evening high clouds and possibly breezy at times. |
| Fri | 3rd | 78/59 | Some high clouds but mostly sunny day; Possibly breezy at times early. Some evening high clouds. |
| Sat | 4th | 84/60 | Sunny day. Mostly clear evening. |
| Sun | 5th | 80/58 | Sunny day. Mostly clear evening. |
| Mon | 6th | 74/56 | Chance of some early morning low clouds/fog; Otherwise, mostly sunny day. Chance of late evening low clouds. |
Synopsis
The storm that passed through southern California late Tuesday into early Wednesday turned out wetter than expected (at least to me). It was far from a drenching storm, but rainfall between a quarter and half inch was common from L.A. County westward (parts of Inland Empire too). Isolated readings over half an inch were reported (a couple of locales actually got soaked with over an inch of rain…Oxnard, being one spot). UCLA received about a third inch rain (rain briefly very heavy during midnight hour)…official tally not available yet.
A good on-shore flow pattern continues in the wake of yesterday’s storm. A second, upper level trough (an “inside slider” type) is passing through the Great Basin states today (preventing a common occurrence of northwest to north winds following a storm). The passage of the second trough, however, will lead to a full fledged, off-shore flow (starting late tonight or early tomorrow). Most computer models are forecasting a moderately strong, Santa Ana wind event (peaking early daylight hours tomorrow). Decent upper air support is predicted by most models, but vertical air support shouldn’t get as deep as with many Santa Anas that occur in late autumn and winter. Peak mountain gusts may reach 65 mph, but most gusts should stay under 50 mph. Peak lowland winds in wind prone areas may see gusts up to 45 mph, but most winds should stay under 35 mph. Areal coverage of Santa Ana winds in the lowlands might be less than most other strong wind events due to shallower, forecast, upper air support. I’m unsure how breezy the campus area will get for this event.
However strong the Santa Ana wind event gets, there should be a noticeable drop off in wind by tomorrow evening. Significant wind gusts (25 mph or higher) should get restricted to mainly the higher mountains by Saturday. A transition to a weak on-shore flow should begin on Sunday (fully on-shore forecast for Monday, albeit still weak). No further off-shore flow is predicted for next week (through next Saturday).
Temperatures should climb well above normal again starting tomorrow (FYI– UCLA recorded the warmest March on record despite the cooling off in the final days of the month). Widespread 80 degree weather away from the coast is anticipate for the next few days (UCLA may see 80 degree weather for a couple days, assuming daily ocean breezes are kept weak enough). High pressure aloft isn’t forecast to get strong enough to support 90 degree weather, but isolated readings into the upper 80s may occur this weekend.
General cooling should occur by Monday (just by the coast starting Sunday). Model agreement isn’t the best, but near normal temperatures could return around midweek onward. Many model solution, in fact, show a chance for wet weather late next week (on or after the 9th). Most model solutions show a minor event, but there are some solutions favoring a slightly wetter storm than what passed by yesterday (decent storm for early April). It remains to be seen what actually transpires, but at least, the models aren’t showing a persistent high pressure covering the state (which led to the record warm March in many locales).
Next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Monday, 6 April.