| Day | Date | High/Low | Forecast |
| Thu | 19th | 55/43 | Rain, possibly heavy at times, tapering to a chance of brief showers early afternoon; Breezy at times. Scattered evening clouds and diminishing wind. |
| Fri | 20th | 59/45 | Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Some evening high clouds. |
| Sat | 21st | 65/48 | Mostly sunny day with scattered high clouds. Scattered evening high clouds. |
| Sun | 22nd | 71/52 | Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Becoming partly cloudy with high clouds in the evening. |
| Mon | 23rd | 74/56 | Partly cloudy with high clouds. Becoming mostly cloudy with high clouds in the evening. |
Synopsis
Storm #3 of the week has pretty much ended across L.A. County (main exception being over the mountains). A few, brief-lived showers may still pass through the L.A. Basin, but that threat should end by sunset. The storm was wetter than I expected a couple days ago. Storm dynamics were greater than I anticipated (misdirected by marginal, “inside slider” characteristics well aloft). Still, today’s storm didn’t match the rainfall of storm #1 nor the wind speeds of storm #2 (auto-rain gauge reported 2.73″ versus 0.93″ today; 35 mph wind yesterday versus 23 mph, so far today).
A return to more tranquil weather will occur tomorrow. A cool, northwest wind flow pattern should limit tomorrow’s daytime warming (early morning temperatures may be a little lower than it got early today. A brisk, afternoon sea breeze could make it feel cooler though. A more noticeable warming trend is expected over the weekend and continue into next week. Building high pressure aloft and a marginal, off-shore flow should promote warmer than normal weather by Sunday (widespread readings back into the 70s). Although the numerical models aren’t predicting it explicitly, the high pressure aloft may even induce some 80 degree readings early next week . That is in spite of predicted, variable high clouds. So, the recent, cold weather (L.A. standards) may quickly become a distant memory.
For some time, many of the longer range models were predicting additional, wet episodes in southern California in the last week of February (just less in terms of storm totals). However, recent model runs showed a retreating storm track (pushed back to the north). There are still a few model solutions showing light as far south as Santa Barbara County (sometime late Monday- Wednesday), but based on the predicted strength of high pressure aloft, L.A. County should be dry next week. Even if wet weather occurs, weak storm dynamics in the Southland would keep storm totals under a quarter inch. (Note: storms next week predicted to tap into an atmospheric river. High snow levels likely even in the northern Sierras.)
The model forecasts for early March don’t completely rule out wet weather in southern California, but the model consensus favors wet weather just in northern California (modest strength storms at most). There are a number of model solutions that keep high pressure entrenched over the Southwest (through 1st week of March). Mostly warmer than normal weather is the current model consensus.
Next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Monday, 23 February.