| Day | Date | High/Low | Forecast |
| Mon | 24th | 67/53 | Mostly sunny remainder of day with some high clouds. Some evening high clouds. |
| Tue | 25th | 73/55 | Sunny day. Clear evening. |
| Wed | 26th | 77/58 | Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Scattered evening high clouds. |
| Thu | 27th | 76/54 | Variable high clouds but generally sunny day. Scattered evening high clouds. |
| Fri | 28th | 70/52 | Sunny day. Some evening high clouds possible. |
Synopsis
High pressure aloft has started to build into the state from the west. With a weak off-shore flow in place, warmer than normal, daytime temperatures will occur west of the mountains (begins tomorrow…most areas a little cooler today due to weak on-shore flow promoting a marine layer this morning). The warmest day should occur on Wednesday when widespread temperatures into the mid/upper 70s are likely. Even some areas of the coast may briefly reach 70 degrees. Should deep layered easterly wind flow occur on Wednesday (NAM model suggesting this), it could warm into the low/mid-80s in the coastal plain (minus the coast). Thanksgiving day should be slightly cooler unless high cloud cover ends up thicker than currently expecting. Then, it may only reach low 70s in the coastal plain.
The predicted off-shore flow is expected to have poor, upper air support for widespread, significant wind (gusts 25 mph or higher). That should be restricted mainly to higher elevation locales (peak gusts may approach 50 mph as early as tonight). The off-shore flow should wane quickly on Thanksgiving Day and essentially be gone on Friday. While dry, it’s not predicted to be as “bone dry” as some Santa Ana wind events can get.
Confidence in the weather forecast for the latter half (29th-30th) of the holiday weekend remains on the low side. The computer models continue to disagree amongst each other. Even run to run consistency fails on some occasions (including the usually reliable ECMWF). Most forecast cooler weather (fair number favor below normal temperatures). The main problem lies with where a cold, upper air trough will form. Solutions range from east of southern California to just west of southern California. An “inside slider” scenario includes wind and a chance for some instability showers (mostly over/around the mountains sometime Saturday night-Monday morning). If the “inside slider” ends up too far to the east, we’ll see a “cool” Santa Ana wind event (mostly clear with temperatures at or below normal levels). If the trough ends up off the coast, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible (late Sunday-Tuesday period, if some model solutions are right).
For the time being, the model consensus favors a small risk of showers (Sunday-Monday period). Since no sub-tropical moisture will be involved, any storm totals will be relatively minor (mostly a quarter inch or less in the lowlands). The outlook beyond early next week is even murkier. Some favor off-shore flow (warmer than normal). Others show an opening of the “storm gate” (by the 4th of December). Once again, it’s weather dart board time.
Next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Monday, 1 December.