Weather Synopsis – November 2, 2023

James Murakami

NOTE: Weather Conditions at sites below–

Current UCLA Data at a Glance

Current UCLA Data Summary UCLA Five Day Forecast 2 Nov (Thu) 82/60 Sunny day. Clear evening 3 Nov (Fri) 79/57 Some high clouds possible; Otherwise, sunny day. Mostly clear evening. 4 Nov (Sat) 77/55 Mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Some high clouds in the evening 5 Nov (Sun) 75/55 Chance of early morning low clouds/fog; Otherwise, mostly sunny day with some high clouds. Chance of evening low clouds. 6 Nov (Mon) 72/54 Good chance of morning low clouds but sunny by the afternoon. Evening low clouds likely.

Sorry everyone who have missed my forecasts and synopses. The level of care my elderly father needs increased substantially recently. Based on responses in the previous weeks, I’ve decided there is enough interest to continue my forecasts and synopses. However, the issuance frequency will be intermittent, depending on how occupied I get (no two days have been the same lately). You’ll just have to tune in non-holiday weekdays to see if a forecast was issued (potentially late afternoon). I may need to embed the five day forecast within the synopsis so that it doesn’t “disappear” the following day (reminder that the department doesn’t plan on fixing the current weather page…not enough available, human resources to overhaul the site).

High pressure aloft is still firmly covering the state, but the low level,off-shore flow is quickly losing steam. With no significant, persistent, off-shore flow, humidity along most of the Southland coastline has returned to near normal (diluted, shallow, marine layer likely forming). It was slightly cooler today across the coastal plain (less uniform coastal valleys) as a result. Further, though modest cooling should continue through Saturday. If a better defined marine layer can form by Saturday morning (probably not in L.A. County), the cooling near the coast should be more pronounced. Dense fog along the coast could be an issue as early as early Saturday (computer model consensus favors Saturday night into Sunday).

With high pressure aloft sliding farther south by Sunday (multiple, upper air troughs stating to affect northern California with some wet weather…mostly northwest corner of the state), more general cooling should take place across all of the Southland. A return of a moderate depth marine layer is expected on Monday and Tuesday, but at this point, no relevant, marine layer drizzle/light rain is anticipated (just return of low clouds and cooler than normal weather…breezy in the interior too from healthy, on-shore flow). By Wednesday, high pressure aloft is forecast to nose into the state again.

Most of the model solutions don’t forecast a significant, prolonged, off-shore flow, but a return to slightly warmer than normal weather may occur late next week (model consensus far the unanimous). There are some model solutions showing a chance for wet weather reaching southern California over a part of the Veteran’s Day weekend, but confidence is low at this time (too many varied solutions). While northern California has a better shot at widespread, wet weather, at this point, the model consensus doesn’t favor a major storm.

Next issued synopsis….???