Weather Synopsis – February 12, 2024

James Murakami

UCLA 5 Day Forecast

Mon12th 65/50 Sunny day. Clear evening
Tue 13th 64/52 Chance of some early morning low clouds; Otherwise, mostly sunny day. Chance of evening low clouds.
Wed 14th 62/52 Morning low clouds likely; Otherwise, variable high clouds. Mostly cloudy evening.
Thu 15th 65/53 Morning low clouds clearing to partly cloudy high clouds through the evening.
Fri 16th 68/52 Partly cloudy with high clouds through the evening.


This is my first, written forecast in some time (took time off after death of my father in December). So, at first, I may be rusty at this forecasting routine. My plan is to issue a forecast and synopsis twice a week through the spring (precise days may vary from week to week).

After all the wet weather last week (historic rainfall for UCLA), the weather this week will be fairly quiet. Weak high pressure aloft is expected to cover most of the state through Friday. Developing, low level, on-shore flow, however, should permit a return of coastal low clouds (as early as tomorrow though not necessarily as a widespread overcast). Low clouds in the coastal plain should be widespread for Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but the marine layer shouldn’t get deep enough for drizzle. Also, the current high pressure aloft isn’t strong. Varying amounts of high clouds are predicted to pass through the state later this week.

Although there is good agreement among the longer range, computer models for a return of wet weather in the state, there is disagreement on when wet weather may reach southern California (the serious stuff…not just marine layer mist/drizzle). At this point, a relevant threat of widespread, wet weather isn’t expected till Saturday evening at the earliest. If the model consensus is right, the “storm gate” should be open to the state for most or all of next week. It probably won’t be as wet as last week, but there is a distinct chance for the passing “waves” to tap into an atmospheric river.

The next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Thursday, 15 February.