Publications

Google Scholar

Submitted/in review

• Dong, Y., Lu, K., Hwang, Y-T, Hu, R-J. , Ceppi, P., Breul, P., Roach, L. A. and Deser, C. Tropical impacts of the Southern Ocean underestimated by mean-state biases. Submitted 

• Cooper, V. and co-authors (including Y. Dong): Paleoclimate pattern effects constrain climate sensitivity and future warming. In review, PNAS 

Peer-reviewed Publications

2025

• Sadai, S. A. Karmalkar, D. Pollard, Y. Dong, E. Lucas, N. Gomez, R. DeConto, A. Condron:  Antarctic meltwater alters future trajectories of climate and sea level. In press, Nature Communications

• Schneider, D. P., Maher, N., Dong, Y., Kay, J. E., & Capotondi, M. A. (2025). Observable polar and Atlantic sea surface salinity trends have emerged, while the noisy Indo-Pacific hesitates. Environmental Research: Climate. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae065b [pdf]

• Dong, Y., Polvani, L. M., Hwang, Y. T., & England, M. R. (2025). Stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the recent tropical La Niña-like cooling pattern. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1), 150. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01020-0 [pdf]

2024 

• Dong, Y., Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Capotondi, A., & Sanchez, S. C. (2024). Distilling the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases to large-scale low-frequency surface ocean changes over the past century. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL112020. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112020 [PDF]

• VT Cooper, KC Armour, GJ Hakim, JE Tierney, MB Osman, C Proistosescu, Y Dong, NJ Burls, T Andrews, DE Amrhein, J Zhu, W Dong, Y Ming, and P Chmielowiec: Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates. Science Advances 10,eadk9461(2024).DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adk9461 [PDF]
• Bloch‐Johnson, J., Rugenstein, M. A., Alessi, M. J., Proistosescu, C., Zhao, M., Zhang, B., … & Zhou, C. (2024). The Green’s function model intercomparison project (GFMIP) protocol. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16(2), e2023MS003700. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003700 [PDF]
• Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Dong, Y., Hahn, L. C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Pauling, A. G., … & Gregory, J. M. (2024). Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(12), e2312093121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312093121 [PDF]

2023 

• Dong, Y., Polvani, L. M., & Bonan, D. B. (2023). Recent multi-decadal Southern Ocean surface cooling unlikely caused by Southern Annular Mode trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL106142. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106142 [PDF] -> Research Highlight: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 
• Watanabe, W. Iwakiri, T., Dong, Y., & Kang, S. M.  (2023). Two competing drivers of the recent Walker circulation trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105332. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105332 [PDF]
• Mitevski, I., Dong, Y., Polvani, L. M., Rugenstein, M., & Orbe, C. (2023). Non-monotonic feedback dependence under abrupt CO₂ forcing due to a North Atlantic pattern effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103617. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103617 [PDF]
• Zhou, C., Wang, M., Zelinka, M. D., Liu, Y., Dong, Y., & Armour, K. C. (2023). Explaining Forcing Efficacy With Pattern Effect and State Dependence. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(3), e2022GL101700. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101700 [PDF]

2022 

• Dong, Y., Pauling, A. G., Sadai, S., & Armour, K. C. (2022). Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea‐Surface Temperature Pattern Effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(24), e2022GL101249. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101249 [PDF]  
• Wills, R. C., Dong, Y., Proistosecu, C., Armour, K. C., & Battisti, D. S. Systematic climate model biases in the large‐scale patterns of recent sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure change. Geophysical Research Letters, e2022GL100011. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011 [PDF]
• Andrews, T., Bodas‐Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M., Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Paynter, D., … & Liu, C. (2022). On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, e2022JD036675. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675 [PDF]
• Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Battisti, D. S., & Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. (2022). Two-way teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the tropical Pacific via a dynamic feedback. Journal of Climate, 35(19), 2667-2682. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1 [PDF] > Highlight: Yale Climate Connections 

2018 – 2021

• Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Andrews, T., Battisti, D. S., Forster, P. M., … & Shiogama, H. (2021). Biased estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response derived from historical CMIP6 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(24), e2021GL095778. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095778 [PDF]
• Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Zelinka, M. D., Proistosescu, C., Battisti, D. S., Zhou, C., & Andrews, T. (2020). Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Journal of Climate, 33(18), 7755-7775. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1011.1 [PDF] -> Research Highlight: Nature Climate Change
• Dong, Y., Proistosescu, C., Armour, K. C., & Battisti, D. S. (2019). Attributing historical and future evolution of radiative feedbacks to regional warming patterns using a Green’s function approach: The preeminence of the western Pacific. Journal of Climate, 32(17), 5471-5491. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0843.1 [PDF]
• Stuecker, M. F., Bitz, C. M., Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Kang, S. M., Xie, S. P., … & Jin, F. F. (2018). Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks. Nature Climate Change, 8(12), 1076-1081. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0339-y [PDF]

2017 and earlier 

• Dong, Y., Varquez, A. C. G., & Kanda, M. (2017). Global anthropogenic heat flux database with high spatial resolution. Atmospheric Environment, 150, 276-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.040  [PDF]
• Kawano, N., Dong, Y., Yucel, M., Varquez, A. C., & Kanda, M. (2016). Global Urban Climatology—GENERAL Simulation Framework for Heat Island Analysis (Japanese Title: グローバル都市気象学-都市温暖化の汎用解析手法の提案). Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 72. doi:10.2208/jscejhe.72.I_97