Michael Ghil

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Upcoming Seminar

Claudie Beaulieu (UC Santa Cruz) - Detection of long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll

Wed, Apr 8, 2020

MS 7124

Detecting climate change impacts on ocean primary productivity is hindered by the shortness of the record and the long timescale of memory within the ocean. As a result, time-series analysis of satellite ocean chlorophyll is still inconclusive as to the sign of change in some regions. In this talk, we will discuss a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model used to estimate long-term trends in satellite ocean chlorophyll. Utilizing spatial dependency in the available data improves the model fit, but reveals large uncertainties. We will discuss the use of coupled model simulations from the CMIP5 experiment to form priors to provide a “first guess” on observational trend estimates and to constrain uncertainties. The Bayesian hierarchical model used here provides a framework for integrating different sources of data for detecting trends and estimating their uncertainty in studies of global change.

Join us on Zoom! https://ucla.zoom.us/j/3108252418

Specialty: Climate Dynamics El Niño Satellite-Data Assimilation

ghil [at] atmos.ucla.edu

Distinguished Research Professor

(310) 206-0651

MSA 7236

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/

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Campus Address	Mailing Address	Contact Information
520 Portola Plaza	UCLA Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences	Students Services Office: (310) 825-1954
Math Sciences Building 7127	Box 951565	Email: studentinfo@atmos.ucla.edu
Los Angeles, CA 90095	Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565	Phone: (310) 825-1217